Obama and the branding of a politician

The concern among beltway types (we can practically feel them sweating over this) is whether the Wright controversy (and its currently, though much reduced compared to last week, viral nature) will brand him as an angry, divisive black candidate. This, of course, is the opposite of his message, and writers from Politico to the Washington Post seem worried. I would argue that while moderate white support is ditching him right now, much ground can be made up, and the branding is not as whole as one might assume.

Compare a week of intense, 24-hour Wright video playing on Fox News and CNN with 2 months of glowing press coverage, full of entire victory speeches and rallies throughout January and February. While yes, the controversy is hurting him right now, it seems a bit silly to assume that 2 months of good coverage gets overwhelmed by one intense week of bad. At the very worst, they cancel out, and I doubt even that. Just wait until this thing disappears (this will probably be the case by Monday) and watch his poll numbers creep up.

I also think one reason a lot of conservatives and other moderate voters who maybe once supported Obama are now questioning him is because he is clearly going to be the Democratic nominee. It is much easier to support the idea of a black guy (hey, they're cool!) who's fighting the evil (and female!) Hillary Clinton than the presumptive African American nominee of the Democratic Party. So perhaps this was bound to happen. In any case, we are seeing Obama bottom out. After all, unless more coverage emerges, how can it get any worse than this? The racialization that perhaps was inevitable has occurred at a miraculous time for him--March--leaving plenty of time until the convention. My prediction is he probably finishes this thing by early June (carrying states like Oregon, South Dakota, North Carolina, and, if he's lucky, Indiana, which would ease the "lunch-pail Democrat problem", ), independent groups gear up and thrash McCain and Obama, respectively, over the summer, and by the convention he will be able to beat the hell out of McSame over issues, while still being way nicer and more unifying in the press coverage than that angry preacher. September will show him creep up and take leads in key states--Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, New Mexico (some of which he already has good leads in)--and holding the allegedly McCain friendly Michigan and Pennsylvania. I don't know if he can win Ohio, but I don't think he needs to. The electoral map will change in November. The black-white divide just isn't as bitter in the states he needs to win--the Southwest, the newly contested (and increasingly creative-class) Virginia and North Carolina. Sure, this controversy has sucked, and sure, some will never get over it, but once the question becomes: 100 years of war and a precise continuation of Bush economics vs. smart foreign policy, renewed hope and unity, lobbying and ethics reform, and comprehensive proposals to fix the economy, healthcare, and energy, Americans will choose a smart young guy over an angry old war vet stuck in the Hanoi Hilton 30 years later. You wait and see!