It appears, based on a melange of articles and reports emerging from newspapers and superdelegates (the party leaders, congressmen, former presidents, etc. who get to vote at the convention) that what was just last week being called a crisis that might "destroy" the Democratic Party is, well, not such a big deal.
The Times wrote today about how some of Hillary's superdelegates have made clear they'll back the most viable, most popularly-elected nominee. This is the increasing consensus among both Democratic insiders and several of the superdelegates themselves. It is probably impossible for superdelegates to oppose the popularly chosen nominee and crown someone else (presumably Hillary) at the convention. The superdelegates know this, and won't willfully set things ablaze. Whoops, MSM--No convention fight!
With his momentum from a 5-contest-sweep this weekend and a probable trio of victories tomorrow in Maryland, Virginia, and D.C., Obama should be strong through March 4th. He has Hawaii and Wisconsin before then, both states I think he can do well in (Hawaii because he comes from there and it presumably leans very progressive, Wisconsin because it has liberal strongholds in Madison and elsewhere, and "creative-class" Dems and college students should be active).
With all of this success, he would be in a good place on March 4th. This contest has shown the CW defied again and again, though, with successes bringing less momentum and not more, with last-minute performances altering the campaign narrative, with polls being wildly wrong. I am relatively confident in an Obama win in this primary (Markos at Dailykos seems to have been convinced of this all along--funny, I don't remember reading that... though I am not a DailyKos freak anymore).
It's a good thing the most popular, and likable candidate is also the most intelligent, the most credible, the least corrupt, the most progressive, and the most candid. That's all I will say on that.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Sunday, February 10, 2008
This Weekend's News
Strong showing for Obama yesterday in Washington, Nebraska, and Louisiana. His folks are hoping to edge out a win in Maine (a typically strong state for Hillary) to make the weekend a sweep.
Polls from Virginia and Maryland show Obama with 15 and 20 point leads, suggesting something miraculous (perhaps more tears) will have to emerge from the Clinton campaign to stem the tide going into "Chesapeake" or "Potomac" Tuesday on the 12th. Pundits have tended to assume Obama will clean up in the District of Columbia.
Assuming all of this happens, Ben Smith at Politico and others have begun speculating Obama might generate a substantial lead in delegates and momentum and be able to end this thing in early March. I am less convinced that a tidal wave like that will break out, but if it does, it might mean the Democratic Party can start organizing and coalescing by May or even April. What we do not want is to have McCain slowly building up his organization (and helplessly trying to hate abortion more or be less sane to appease his base) as Democrats fight this out through the summer.
Hillary has surprised everyone by raising $10 million from over 100,000 donors over the last week. This is impressive (though probably not as high as what Obama has brought in). It is perhaps in defiance of the conventional wisdom that she has amassed (seemingly overnight) a small-donor base. I would argue that this probably stemmed from the news she was broke and lending her campaign millions of her own dollars. Her grassroots folks (what few she has) probably assumed (and until now would have been correct) she had enough high-dollar donors to keep her machine going. Obama's small-dollar base will kick in more decisively over the next month or so, when her high-dollar donors will be useless and her campaign struggles to maintain a consistent donation plan from its small-donor supporters.
Maine's results come in this evening (voting ends by 6pm). Check The Page (Mark Halperin's great blog over at Time.com) for results.
Polls from Virginia and Maryland show Obama with 15 and 20 point leads, suggesting something miraculous (perhaps more tears) will have to emerge from the Clinton campaign to stem the tide going into "Chesapeake" or "Potomac" Tuesday on the 12th. Pundits have tended to assume Obama will clean up in the District of Columbia.
Assuming all of this happens, Ben Smith at Politico and others have begun speculating Obama might generate a substantial lead in delegates and momentum and be able to end this thing in early March. I am less convinced that a tidal wave like that will break out, but if it does, it might mean the Democratic Party can start organizing and coalescing by May or even April. What we do not want is to have McCain slowly building up his organization (and helplessly trying to hate abortion more or be less sane to appease his base) as Democrats fight this out through the summer.
Hillary has surprised everyone by raising $10 million from over 100,000 donors over the last week. This is impressive (though probably not as high as what Obama has brought in). It is perhaps in defiance of the conventional wisdom that she has amassed (seemingly overnight) a small-donor base. I would argue that this probably stemmed from the news she was broke and lending her campaign millions of her own dollars. Her grassroots folks (what few she has) probably assumed (and until now would have been correct) she had enough high-dollar donors to keep her machine going. Obama's small-dollar base will kick in more decisively over the next month or so, when her high-dollar donors will be useless and her campaign struggles to maintain a consistent donation plan from its small-donor supporters.
Maine's results come in this evening (voting ends by 6pm). Check The Page (Mark Halperin's great blog over at Time.com) for results.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Where the 2008 campaign appears to stand
The Obama camp has had a strong surge in the last month since South Carolina, including the endlessly-positive MSNBC coverage commented on (with concerns it might backfire) over at TPM Horse's Mouth.
They probably let expectations get too high going into Super Tuesday, but nonetheless succeeded in the psychologically significant (if quite meaningless) win of more states (13 to Clinton's 9, NM is still unclear), and what appears will be a slight victory in delegates. It is not being commented on a huge amount, but whereas he competed quite strongly in Hillary's states (New York, even), she was clobbered in most of the ones he did well in (2-1 in Georgia, Illinois, many of the caucus states). Lots of activist power moving this guy forward.
I'm pushing for him for reasons I'll elaborate on as we go... but as the February schedule does look good (caucus states, states with lots of African Americans, progressive "creative class" states like Washington) for him, I hope they try and find a way to bring expectations down. It appears anything less than a full sweep (except maybe Maine) until Texas and Ohio in March would be some sort of upset in Hillary's favor. That wouldn't be factually correct, of course, but perception is everything.
She'll make a strong showing in Ohio and Texas, and so this could be a very tight delegate race to the finish. Obama's best strategy is to push for a very strong, momentum-inducing showing the rest of this month, dry out Hillary's money, and hope for a real (if slight) lead in pledged delegates going into June. Superdelegates should, then, move his way. We'll have to hope Clinton-era allegiances don't supersede the will of the Democratic Party electorate.
They probably let expectations get too high going into Super Tuesday, but nonetheless succeeded in the psychologically significant (if quite meaningless) win of more states (13 to Clinton's 9, NM is still unclear), and what appears will be a slight victory in delegates. It is not being commented on a huge amount, but whereas he competed quite strongly in Hillary's states (New York, even), she was clobbered in most of the ones he did well in (2-1 in Georgia, Illinois, many of the caucus states). Lots of activist power moving this guy forward.
I'm pushing for him for reasons I'll elaborate on as we go... but as the February schedule does look good (caucus states, states with lots of African Americans, progressive "creative class" states like Washington) for him, I hope they try and find a way to bring expectations down. It appears anything less than a full sweep (except maybe Maine) until Texas and Ohio in March would be some sort of upset in Hillary's favor. That wouldn't be factually correct, of course, but perception is everything.
She'll make a strong showing in Ohio and Texas, and so this could be a very tight delegate race to the finish. Obama's best strategy is to push for a very strong, momentum-inducing showing the rest of this month, dry out Hillary's money, and hope for a real (if slight) lead in pledged delegates going into June. Superdelegates should, then, move his way. We'll have to hope Clinton-era allegiances don't supersede the will of the Democratic Party electorate.
Kick-off
This is the first post on what I hope to make a thorough exploration of liberal politics for the benefit of those on Eastern Long Island. We'll look at the 2008 campaign, Congress, elections, legislation, domestic and foreign policy, and the like. Keep coming back! I plan on updating at least twice or so a week.
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