Clinton supporters ditching Obama in the general?

Much was made of a recent Gallup report indicating some 28% of Clinton supporters would vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee, while just 19% of Obama supporters would do the same if Clinton gets it.

What does this mean and where does it come from?

Well, first, it does not help that HRC is running a deliberately disparaging campaign against Obama, intent on making herself and John McCain the adults and Obama, despite being in her own party, some sort of unelectable child. Her supporters are partly just taking the message from the top down.

What else accounts for such a percentage? Well, I'll say it. Race!

Consider the CNN Ohio Exit Poll: of the 20% of voters who said race was a factor in their decision, they went 59%-39% for HRC. The trend is there in other state polls, and not just the deep south ones.

Nonetheless, I think these divisions are overstated. Nomination contests are often divisive (think the GOP in 2000), but the parties tend to coalesce. That assumes, of course, the loser drops out before the convention and allows the party the summer to build organization and unify before a fall campaign. Consider this bit of analysis from Gallup:

Still, when almost 3 out of 10 Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain over Obama, it suggests that divisions are running deep within the Democratic Party. If the fight for the party's nomination were to continue until the Denver convention in late August, the Democratic Party could suffer some damage as it tries to regroup for the November general election.


It's on you, Hillary. The party, or you?