Where the 2008 campaign appears to stand

The Obama camp has had a strong surge in the last month since South Carolina, including the endlessly-positive MSNBC coverage commented on (with concerns it might backfire) over at TPM Horse's Mouth.

They probably let expectations get too high going into Super Tuesday, but nonetheless succeeded in the psychologically significant (if quite meaningless) win of more states (13 to Clinton's 9, NM is still unclear), and what appears will be a slight victory in delegates. It is not being commented on a huge amount, but whereas he competed quite strongly in Hillary's states (New York, even), she was clobbered in most of the ones he did well in (2-1 in Georgia, Illinois, many of the caucus states). Lots of activist power moving this guy forward.

I'm pushing for him for reasons I'll elaborate on as we go... but as the February schedule does look good (caucus states, states with lots of African Americans, progressive "creative class" states like Washington) for him, I hope they try and find a way to bring expectations down. It appears anything less than a full sweep (except maybe Maine) until Texas and Ohio in March would be some sort of upset in Hillary's favor. That wouldn't be factually correct, of course, but perception is everything.

She'll make a strong showing in Ohio and Texas, and so this could be a very tight delegate race to the finish. Obama's best strategy is to push for a very strong, momentum-inducing showing the rest of this month, dry out Hillary's money, and hope for a real (if slight) lead in pledged delegates going into June. Superdelegates should, then, move his way. We'll have to hope Clinton-era allegiances don't supersede the will of the Democratic Party electorate.