Monday, February 11, 2008

Superdelegates, momentum, and electability

It appears, based on a melange of articles and reports emerging from newspapers and superdelegates (the party leaders, congressmen, former presidents, etc. who get to vote at the convention) that what was just last week being called a crisis that might "destroy" the Democratic Party is, well, not such a big deal.

The Times wrote today about how some of Hillary's superdelegates have made clear they'll back the most viable, most popularly-elected nominee. This is the increasing consensus among both Democratic insiders and several of the superdelegates themselves. It is probably impossible for superdelegates to oppose the popularly chosen nominee and crown someone else (presumably Hillary) at the convention. The superdelegates know this, and won't willfully set things ablaze. Whoops, MSM--No convention fight!

With his momentum from a 5-contest-sweep this weekend and a probable trio of victories tomorrow in Maryland, Virginia, and D.C., Obama should be strong through March 4th. He has Hawaii and Wisconsin before then, both states I think he can do well in (Hawaii because he comes from there and it presumably leans very progressive, Wisconsin because it has liberal strongholds in Madison and elsewhere, and "creative-class" Dems and college students should be active).

With all of this success, he would be in a good place on March 4th. This contest has shown the CW defied again and again, though, with successes bringing less momentum and not more, with last-minute performances altering the campaign narrative, with polls being wildly wrong. I am relatively confident in an Obama win in this primary (Markos at Dailykos seems to have been convinced of this all along--funny, I don't remember reading that... though I am not a DailyKos freak anymore).

It's a good thing the most popular, and likable candidate is also the most intelligent, the most credible, the least corrupt, the most progressive, and the most candid. That's all I will say on that.

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