Predictions galore the last few days about how these events would tank Obama's numbers--and even his candidacy. Even The New Republic is jumping on the bandwagon. Consider today's piece by John Judis:
There is even a slight chance that Obama's words in San Francisco could cost him the nomination. Obama is almost certain to have more elected delegates in June than Hillary Clinton, but if he loses Pennsylvania by 15 percentage points (which is not out of the question), that could start a media firestorm around his candidacy that could contribute to other primary defeats and to superdelegate support for Clinton. It's not likely to happen, but after Obama spoke his mind, and, perhaps, lost small-town voters' hearts, in San Francisco, it has suddenly become conceivable.
Did anyone bother to consider polls? Today's Gallup:
Barack Obama has an 11 percentage point, 51% to 40%, lead over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally in the latest April 12-14 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update, his largest margin to date.
The latest PA polls conducted at least partly after the Bitter-gate controversy (courtesy of DailyKos):
Quinnipiac 4/9-13. MoE 2.1% (4/3-6 results)
Clinton 50 (50)
Obama 44 (44)
SurveyUSA 4/12-14. MoE 3.9% (4/5-7 results)
Clinton 54 (56)
Obama 40 (38)
Rasmussen 4/14. MoE 4.0% (4/7 results)
Clinton 50 (48)
Obama 41 (43)
One shows no change, one shows HRC gaining and Obama dropping, and a third shows Obama gaining. Whoops!
While it is still possible that the controversy needs more time to sink in, this has been EVERYWHERE in the PA media since Friday (4/11) and does not appear to be hurting Mr. Obama.
It is truly glorious when Washington elites decide how small-town folk will feel... and then prove to be horribly wrong.
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